KEDM Lite Vol. 23

Actionable event-driven and special situations

We highlight and monitor actionable event-driven trades and special situations.

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Disclaimer. KEDM Lite is provided for informative purposes only. No due diligence has (yet) been performed on the names on this list. The list might change strongly on a regular basis. This overview does not constitute advice; always do your own due diligence. The list is dynamic; it continues to grow and change. If you have interesting additions to the list, feel free to contact us at info@kedm.com or on Twitter. For the full disclaimer, please go here.

This week’s additions and highlights

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1. SPIN-OFFS

• Liberty Global (LBTYA US). Liberty Global completed the buyout of Vodafone’s 50% stake in VodafoneZiggo, so creating Ziggo Group, a Benelux telco with 13m customers and ~€6.6bn revenue. Vodafone receives €1bn cash plus 10% equity, with Liberty owning the remaining 90% and planning an Amsterdam spin‑off in 2027. Management teams are already in place, financial separation across Telenet/Wyre is complete, and €1.2–1.4bn of asset disposals are underway to reduce debt. Liberty frames Ziggo as a regional FCF and dividend compounder. Not a growing asset, but nonetheless one to watch.

• Aspo (ASPO FH). Aspo recently announced that it agreed to sell its Leipurin business for €60m cash (after costs), roughly 14% of its EV. Aspo is an interesting one to keep assessed; the logistics company intends to form two separate companies, Aspo Compounder and Aspo Infra in the coming years. It could also continue to dispose of assets. Growing, profitable and with strong underlying action. UPDATE (April 28, 2026) The sale of Leupurin has been completed, with Aspo indeed confirming that the remaining two businesses (ESL Shipping and Telko) are also still being assessed.

  UPDATE (August 8, 2026) Things are moving fast now. Aspo approved the spin of ESL Shipping, with Aspo’s remaining businesses rebranded as Telko Group. Shareholders will receive 1 ESL share per Aspo share. Lighthouse will roll its 21.4% stake into ESL. The EGM vote is set for Dec. 7, completion targeted for Dec. 31. As we mentioned before, a glance at these units suggests their values (as reflected in Aspo’s current enterprise value) are pretty conservative. A quick SOTP guesstimate puts us at €550-600m enterprise value, implying almost a double on the equity. It might be worth doing some work on it.

• Hammer Metals (HMX AU). Austral is buying Hammer in shares for A$0.087 per Hammer share (~15% gross spread). Interesting as the deal includes a spinco demerger that carves out Hammer’s Western Australian gold assets before the deal closes. The spin would be small on the total (Hammer shareholders would receive A$0.007/share of value tied to SpinCo) which could mean some good old classic post-spin dumping.

• Corteva (CTVA US). Good time to take a look at the upcoming Cortiva of Seeds (Vylor) and Crop Protection (New Corteva), with the shares down recently on poor results. Dis‑synergies were recently cut to $50m. The case is worth a look given the different business dynamics; seed volumes were boosted by timing shifts and strong North American demand, and Crop Protection outperformed on new products and tighter global supply. Corteva also recently raised 2026 royalty guidance, which is quite positive. There’s going to be an investor day on Sept 15. Oct 1 spin date confirmed.

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2. STRATEGIC ALTERNATIVES & REVIEWS

(Potential take-outs, asset sales, M&A, etc.)

• Seacor Marine (SMHI US). Jorey Chernett from Pointillist popped up as a 7.2% shareholder and has immediately been pressing Seacor to address its ‘severe valuation disconnect’, with the stock at ~$8 versus a broker‑appraised NAV above $20/share. He argues in a letter that the market is penalizing the company despite a fleet worth $1bn+. So Chernett is pushing for a strategic review, ideally a full sale, or alternatively a staged fleet monetization to repay debt, cut overhead and unlock asset value. UPDATE (June 30, 2026) More pressure on Seacor. 3.5% holder Yoav Saffar sent a letter to the board, pushing for a strategic review (company sale).

  UPDATE (August 8, 2026) In a win for the activists, SEACOR Marine (SMHI) has launched a strategic review, looking for value‑maximizing transactions – tough, clearly preferably a full sale. This comes after a ton of pressure from Pointillist (the largest shareholder), which argued SMHI’s market cap massively undervalues a fleet. Their thesis: the offshore cycle has fully recovered, but SMHI’s equity still trades at well below its $22/share broker‑appraised value. Seacor remains weighed down by high interest costs, G&A expenses, and subpar utilization, forcing asset sales to bolster liquidity. The premium PSV fleet alone should be worth ~$11/share, with FSVs and Middle East lift boats pushing embedded value to $15/share+, vs. ~$9.5 today.