TMM #83, and an important message

Actionable event-driven and special situations

Jan 06, 2026

We’re rehashing this important message as it seems we sent it out when Substack had some issues, and only 40 readers received it.

The next level

We’re close to hitting two years of publishing our TMM, something we’re quite proud of. The TMM has flagged a LOT of profitable situations during this time and is an invaluable investing tool for us.

As you know, we’re not interested in long lists of every announced merger, buyback, insider trade, executive change, and so on - there are plenty of resources available for that (and most events flagged are not actionable).

The purpose of the TMM is to be a valuable foundation of potentially actionable event-driven investment ideas - those that could actually present interesting opportunities.

That said, there is so much information out there, that we can’t follow it all. Despite us spending quite some time filtering for interesting action, much more could be done.

That’s why we’re excited to announce that the TMM will be partnering with KEDM.

If you don’t know KEDM, we strongly suggest checking it out.

KEDM is a weekly event-driven monitor founded by Harris Kupperman & team of Praetorian Capital. KEDM screens 30+ event-driven strategies, each week, and flags what’s interesting. It also highlights a new investing theme each week.

In short, KEDM is basically TMM’s much bigger (and smarter) brother.

Going forward, the TMM will be incorporated into KEDM and rebranded to KEDM Lite.

The goal remains the same, i.c. flagging 30+ interesting event-driven sits. Only now we’ll be able to leverage a much larger platform (and bigger team).

For you, this will mean the same TMM, but better.

We’re still working on the integration; there’s going to be some changes, and we’ll provide you with more information in due course.

But one of the immediate changes is that going forward the publication will be out on a TUESDAY!

(And for the moment it will still be called Monday Monitor ;) )

If you value this service, please like and hit the “share” button below. Thank you.

This week’s additions and highlights

1. SPIN-OFFS

Versant (VSNT US). Just flagging that Versant is not having a good time trading after recently spinning from Comcast. A reminder that Versant’s portfolio includes cable outlets such as the Golf Channel, USA, Oxygen, E!, as well as MS NOW (formerly MSNBC). Pay TV fees and advertising revenues are declining, so expect varying views on this one - which could create interesting opportunities should the shares remain under pressure.
Luotea (LUOTEA Finland). Another spin that started on the way down is waste management company Luotea, which spun off from Lastik. Haven’t done any work on this one, but screens interesting.
Sunny Optical Technology (2382 HK). Sunny Optical is planning a spin-off and separate listing of its vehicle-related optical businesses. These businesses include camera lens, camera module, LiDAR components and products, ~17% of Sunny’s H1 25 revenues. Interesting as this market has quite some tailwinds, so the unit should grow >> vs the rest of the group.
Baidu (BIDU US). Large for our taste, but might be interesting nonetheless. Baidu intends to spin-off its AI-chip subsidiary Kunlunxin Technology. The spin intends to ‘...independently showcase Kunlunxin’s value, attract investors focused on the AI chip sector, and leverage its standalone listing to enhance its market profile, broaden financing channels, and better align management accountability with performance.’ Timing yet to be determined.

2. STRATEGIC ALTERNATIVES & REVIEWS

(Potential take-outs, asset sales, M&A, etc.)

Ekso Bionics (EKSO US). Applied Digital will spin its cloud computing business, Applied Digital Cloud, into micro-cap Ekso, which will go forward as ChronoScale. Ekso will be selling the rest of its assets. Upon closing, Applied Digital would own approximately 97% of the combined company. Digital Services had $83m revenues; applying the same (insane) multiple on the revenues, guesstimating some debt, we would get ~$60-70m implied valuation for Ekso pro-forma. This, combined with the listed character might make for an interesting trade.
Stratus Properties (STRS US). Stratus announced a $20m buyback, roughly 13% of its market cap. Trading at 0.53x BV, the company has been selling some assets. Might be interesting to check out.
UPDATE (January 6, 2026) Stratus announced that it will review strategic alternatives in order to ‘maximise value’. At the same time, they announced assets sales for ~$61m gross, or $26m net after repayment of a loan and selling costs. The review clearly mentions ‘a plan of dissolution and liquidation’. So this looks like another REIT that sells and distributes. Interesting given sale above NAV.

3. NOTICEABLE LARGE BUYBACKS & TENDER OFFERS

Marqeta (MQ US). After a few tough years, Marqeta seems to be have closed 2025 with decent growth again. The payment card partner for firms including Block and Affirm strongly improved profitability and is now close to operating breakeven, even post its disgusting SBC. That would be a good sign, with ~40% of the market cap still in net cash. At ~70% GMs, there should be quite some operating leverage left in the business. Marqeta recently approved another $100m buyback, with the company having bought back ~12% of its s/o over the past few quarters. 10x ev/ebitda for what should be substantial growth.
Mount Logan Capital (MLCI US). MLCI commenced a tender offer for $15m of its common at $9.43 p/s, or ~14% higher vs the current share price. The tender offer will expire on Feb 2.
RLX Technology (RLX US). E-vapor company RLX announced a new buyback of $500m, ~20% of the current market cap. RLX has still 40% of its market cap in net cash and is buying back shares at a very strong pace. Volatile earnings and Chinese ADR, so that’s one reason for the pressure.
TrustCo Bank (TRST US). TrustCo initiated a 2m share buyback, ~11% of the market cap. Stable, profitable and solid small company.

4. INTERESTING INSIDER & OTHER LARGE PURCHASES

American Bitcoin (ABTC US). Not our cup of tea, but interesting to note that both the Chairman and the CEO of American Bitcoin bought a massive $32m in the company recently. That’s roughly 2% of the market cap. We had other insiders buying in size as well a few weeks ago. A reminder that ABTC was founded by Trump family members.
Butler National (BUKS US). Another small company with some great insider action on the open market. Good to see that insiders are adding even after the recent strong run. The last time this happened (Sept / Oct) the shares ran another +25%. Butler operates in the aerospace industry, which has been extremely strong. Management clearly expects this to continue. Last quarter saw record ebitda.
UPDATE (January 6, 2026) Butler continues its strong run, and insiders continue to buy. That is a combo we love to see. The move is clearly backed by improving fundamentals; margins and order book hitting new highs. A reminder that we wrote this one up roughly a year ago. At ~7.5x ev/ebitda it’s ‘expensive’ based on history, but not given its growth and margin expansion. Still no coverage.
Ultralife (ULBI US). Brad Whitmore continues to add shares on the open market over at Ultralife. Now at ~38.5%. Nice growth and steady margin expansion, but there’s also customer concentration, weak diversification and execution issues, including disruptions from the Electrochem acquisition. The core Battery & Energy Products segment is slowing, while the Communications Systems unit has deteriorated. But, still growing and profitable. Might be worth keeping an eye on.
Tokyo Theatres (9633 Japan). Capital Mgt has been buying aggressively in the market, now at ~5%. TT is a well capitalised and growing company, which is recovering well after a challenging period due to covid, though revenues are still to return to pre-covid levels.
Vestis (VSTS US). December was a VERY busy month for Vestis insiders, ao the CEO and Corvex, the #1 shareholder (now at 15%). Vestis spun off Aramark a few years ago. At the time, management guided for 5-7% organic growth and 4-6% ebitda margin expansion over five years. Needless to say the company did not had a good start and VSTS has been trying a turnaround. That still needs to really bear fruit, but at least profitability seems to have stabilised. Fwiw, the shares have found a nice base. A reminder that there have been reports about interest in the company (ao Advent and Apollo).

5. LIQUIDATIONS

Taylor Maritime (TMIP UK). Not a full-on yet, but getting there. Taylor is a small shipping company which has been selling ships. They’ve recently announced a large capital return, indicating the strategic direction. Performance remains bad, and we would expect sales to continue. The return is just over $140m in Q1, or roughly half the current market cap.
Chrysalis Investments (CHRY UK). Chrysalis continues to buy back shares in the open market, having bought GBP 40m and on its way to GBP 100m (~18% of the current market cap). This one is very interesting. As of the most recent disclosure, Chrysalis NAV is 141p, compared to a share price of 102.4p. One of its largest holdings is Klarna, which could generate significant more liquidity at IPO (now rumored around April). The company is also working on other disposals. UPDATE (March 17, 2025) Klarna filed for an IPO. The company is looking for a valuation of over $15bn. Timeline is next month. This is a very large catalyst for Chrysalis, which in the meantime continues to buy back shares with the share price following the negative sentiment.
UPDATE (January 6, 2026) The board proposed an ‘orderly realisation program’ to return capital over a 3 year period. No new investments are to be made. The proposal will be voted for in February. Interesting given discount (30+% discount) and now also more certainty on the timing.

6. NOTABLE 'RUMORS' AND REPORTED INTEREST

InPost (INPST Netherlands). If there’s one company that has seen its stock go down while the fundamentals continue to go up it’s InPost. Sentiment has been incredibly negative given fears of increasing competition from Allegro. We would argue this reaction is (grossly) exaggerated. Not only is Allegro a looong way from reaching the size and efficiency of InPost, InPost continues to acquire, integrate and grow organically at a rapid pace. By this time next year, Allegro will be <15% of earnings. Does this warrant a ~40% correction?
UPDATE (January 6, 2026) InPost shares were up 11% yesterday, and today the company confirmed it received an indicative proposal for all shares. PPF + CEO own 40+%. Very cheap even after the recent move.
NSTS Bancorp (NSTS US). A loyal subscriber flagged NSTS, which has rumors floating that it might be put of for sale. Given a c. $15 p/s book value, $12.4 share price and some interesting stuff going on, it might be interesting to take a look at it.
UPDATE (January 6, 2026) Still slow and steady, but we like the recent stock moves. A reminder that NSTS is now eligible to be acquired (lapsed 3 years since conversion), with a strong backing from shareholders for the company to look to sell itself.

7. M&A / MERGER ARB

(Incl. CVRs, SPACs, etc.)

KNOT Offshore Partners (KNOP US). KNOT is being acquired by TS Shipping invest for $10 p/s (roughly the current share price). Or rather, the intention is there, because KNOT had to adjourn its AGM THREE times as it was not able to reach an insufficient quorum. Clearly people don’t like the offer. Solution: raise the $10 p/s.
Sotherly Hotels (SOHO US). We flag the upcoming shareholder vote on Jan 22 for the Kingfisher deal, which seeks to acquire Sotherly for $2.25 p/s. The spread is still pretty high even though there merger seems to be progressing well, with large backing from shareholders. More interesting here are the spreads on the various preferred stocks, which contain (capped) post-merger conversion options.

8. ACTIVIST ACTION

Suyppin (3179 Japan). Syuppin is a long-stagnant Japanese retailer where dissatisfied shareholder VIS Advisors is pushing for three new directors at its upcoming AGM (Jan 22), aiming to curb management’s persistent overinvestment in volatile, low-return segments (luxury watched) and refocus capital on the higher-ROA business (camera). 25-30% of shares seems to be supporting the proposals, so there could be a clear path to board control, potentially triggering a sale or downsizing of the watch division (and more).
NCD / Shinagawa (4783 Japan). NCD has seen Ascender Capital continue to increase its stake (now 8.5%) and Miri Cap disclosing 5%. Profitable, growing company with a strong overcapitalised balance sheet. Hikari is the #1 shareholder at 9%. Overall surprised that it only moved ~10% so far. This could see much stronger move given ~6x ev/ebitda (incl excess cash).
Palace Capital (PCA UK). Lakestreet Cap recently increased its holding to 22.5% and is seeking to oust Palace’s CEO, calling out his excessive remuneration. Palace seems to be in liquidation mode, having returned a ton of cash bia buybacks. The company is trading at ~0.7x book, with most assets tied to LT investments in real estate. There’s also some cash and working capital, little debt. No idea about the value of the real estate. Seems we’re reaching an interesting moment. Small and illiquid.
Whitestone REIT (WSR US). Long time shareholder Emmett IM is gearing up for its first proxy fight, seeking board changes over at WSR. The funds is frustrated over the company’s capital allocation decisions and governance. WSR rejected a $15 p/s offer in the recent past (current share price $12.8).
UPDATE (January 6, 2026) Pillerstone is adding to the pressure, calling for a brand new board at the company’s annual meeting, and pushing for a full sale or liquidation of the properties.
Myomo (MYO US). Horton Cap disclosed a 5% stake in microcap med-tech Myomo, seeking to declassify the board. Myomo’s share price had a horrible 2025, mostly on just derating of the multiple from insane levels. Operationally the company is actually doing ok, growing organically at a nice pace without much dilution. ~65% GMs should mean quite some operating leverage ahead. Lots of insider buying over the past months. Fwiw, the shares seem to have found a nice base.
Chicago Rivet & Machine (CVR US). Galloway disclosed a 6.5% position and is pushing the company to better communicate on its potential, stating that CVR could generate $4-5 p/s in sustainable earnings (on a $14 share price). Other insiders are buying as well.

9. INTERESTING SITUATIONS

…but not exactly event-driven or special sit

Intermap Technologies (ITMSF US). Intermap’s shares got a big hit as the company cut guidance given contract deferrals into 2026. They basically moved guidance up one year. The correction more than reflects this change, so the market is clearly putting higher risk on the contract opportunities. But let’s remember that we’re dealing with government contracts here. And rather large ones as well. Overall, Intermap’s restructuring seems to have been bearing fruit. After years of subdued growth and operating losses, topline growth and profitability inflected strongly and should continue to grow rapidly on the back of these new contracts. Now at ~8x forward ev/ebitda for 50-75% ebitda growth pa over the medium term, should they win the contracts.

10. MISCELLANEOUS

(Asset sales, out-of-bankruptcies, IPOs, up- and delistings, etc.)

SciBase (SCIB Sweden). SciBase is initiating a rights issue to raise SEK 83m at 20ct p/s. Massive issue on a SEK 124m market cap. But while SCIB is tiny, it has an interesting and steadily growing product, generating recurring revenues. The medtech company expects a strong growth push with the raised funds, allowing them to reach operating profitability. Might be worth digging into.
Copa (CPA US). If you’re looking for a way to ‘play’ potential changes in Venezuela that does not involve oil, check out Copa Airlines. This Panamanian airline connects the Americas through their hub and spoke model: all flights connect in Panama City. The weaker BRL and loss of Venezuelan flights were a headwind in 2024 which might now both turn into a tailwind. At ~8x p/e this was arguably undervalued before any pickup in flights to Venezuela. As a bonus, they don’t hedge their fuel costs so are effectively short oil.
Rapid7 (RPD US). Another interesting company that has been suffering is Rapid7. If you’re an unprofitable softwareco valued like crazy with disgusting SBC, and growth starts to decelerate... well, you know. Growth remains subdued, but Rapid has been working hard at cutting costs. This seems to be working, with strong jumps in profitability. Also interesting to note that management and activists have been buying shares. A reminder that Jana has been pushing for a sale and that there have been reports about discussions with Advent, Bain and EQT. Maybe something soon?
Energizer (ENR US). Energizer did not have a good 2025, and is still recovering from the smack it received in Nov. The suffering is warranted, given guidance cuts on lower earnings, ao due to headwinds from tariffs and higher costs to realign the supply chain as a consequence. That said, while some of the headwinds will persist, others are temporary. The company bought back quite a few shares in Q4, and insiders have been buying shares for the first time in a while. Still pretty healthy margins and cash flow generation, though now at ~30-40% cheaper vs the past. Too much?

Disclaimer. ToffCap’s Monday Monitor is provided for informative purposes only. No due diligence has (yet) been performed on the names on this list. The list might change strongly on a regular basis. This overview does not constitute advice; always do your own due diligence. The list is dynamic; it continues to grow and change. If you have interesting additions to the list, feel free to contact us at contact@toffcap.com or on Twitter.